Despite its low seismic activity, Australia is more vulnerable to earthquakes than one would expect due to concentration of population and large stock of buildings that are structurally unable to withstand even moderate seismic shaking. This was demonstrated by the 5.6 magnitude earthquake that occurred in Newcastle in 1989, one of the most costly natural disasters in Australia, despite its low magnitude. One question elicited by these circumstances is: What would happen if one of Australia’s main cities were hit by an earthquake similar to Newcastle’s? An example of near miss is offered by the magnitude 5.4 earthquake that struck Adelaide in 1954, whose epicentre, far from developed areas at the time, would lie in densely developed areas were it to occur today.

Providing realistic estimates for natural disaster scenarios is essential for emergency managers. A systematic approach for developing such scenarios can reveal blind spots and vulnerabilities in planning. In this work, we will present the first results of the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC project for developing natural disaster scenarios using the city of Adelaide as a case study. We have developed and implemented a methodology to estimate losses to property, life, infrastructure and essential facilities based on the model put forward by the US Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). This methodology was used to estimate the consequences of an event similar to the 1954 Adelaide earthquake. The results of this exercise are presented as maps showing the distribution of casualties, losses and likely damage to infrastructure and essential facilities.