We are trialling the use of new science to predict blow-up fire events.

Blow-up fire events are the key part of extreme wildfires. These events last for a few hours and burn all parts of the landscape with similar, extreme intensity. They are the cause of much of the destruction caused by wildfires in Australia this century. In recent years, significant new science has been conducted to increase our understanding of the drivers of these events.

There is now enough understanding to allow us to tentatively predict blow-up events before they occur, with enough lead-time to mitigate the risks that they might pose. A process model has been developed, which recognises that environmental, weather and fire information play equal roles in making predictions. Two peer-reviewed science papers have been published on this model.

We have commenced a formal trial of the system with NSW Rural Fire Service, but no validation is yet possible. Prior, informal application of the model for a number of recent wildfires has been successful. It is important to spread awareness of this effort, so that we can assess fires across Australia and to obtain validation as quickly as possible.

BUFO is the first operational attempt to forecast blow-ups using surface and atmospheric profile observations. If successful it will have global application. It is allied with international work to develop better understanding of the meteorological conditions conducive to blow-up events.